Asteroid 2024 YR4 impact risk has fluctuated over the past few days. Initially, NASA estimated a 3.1% chance of impact in 2032, making it the most dangerous asteroid in decades. The probability then dropped to 1.5% the next day and now stands at just 0.28%, or 1 in 360.
Why the Probabilities Keep Changing
This asteroid, measuring 130 to 300 feet wide, was first detected in late 2024. At first, there was limited data on its orbit. New observations have helped refine its trajectory, reducing the estimated risk.
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale is used to communicate asteroid risks. When 2024 YR4 had a 3.1% impact chance, it reached Level 3 on the scale. This was the first asteroid to reach Level 3 since the scale’s creation.
How the Torino Scale Works
The Torino Scale ranks asteroid threats from 0 (no risk) to 10 (certain impact). It also provides color-coded warnings:
- White (0): No risk
- Green (1): No serious concern
- Yellow (2-4): Close encounter possible
- Orange (5-7): Serious risk
- Red (8-10): Guaranteed catastrophic impact
Since its risk probability dropped, 2024 YR4 has now been downgraded on the scale.
Why Early Estimates Are Uncertain
Asteroid impact predictions are like tracking a baseball the moment it’s hit. At first, it’s hard to tell exactly where it will land. As it moves, more data helps refine the prediction.
New telescope images taken on Feb. 19 and 20 helped NASA update the asteroid’s path. The odds of a collision decreased sharply as a result.
Should We Be Worried?
Right now, the risk is very low. Most asteroids classified as threats are later downgraded. In 2004, an asteroid called Apophis was ranked as a Level 4 risk, but new observations ruled out an impact.
NASA and other space agencies will keep monitoring 2024 YR4. But for now, the chances of it hitting Earth are extremely slim.
Source: NBC News